Expectancy calculator
Win rate and payoff mean nothing separately. Expectancy is the one number they make together: the average result of taking the trade.
What the number means
Expectancy is win rate times average win, minus loss rate times average loss - what one trade is worth on average, in whatever unit you entered. Positive means the way you trade has made money on average across the sample; negative means it has not, however good the win rate looks on its own.
The per-100 figure is the same number at a scale where it feels real. It is a statement about the past sample, not a promise about the future: expectancy shifts as markets and behaviour shift, and small samples produce unstable numbers.
Worked example
A record shows 55% winners, averaging 150 per win against 100 per loss.
- 0.55 × 150 − 0.45 × 100 = 37.50 per trade
- Per 100 trades: 3,750
- At a 1.5:1 payoff, break-even is a 40% win rate - this record clears it by fifteen points
The unit test suite pins these exact figures.
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