Commodities · Commodity specialist topics · lesson 6 of 9 · 7 min read · David Alexander
The curve is not a forecast
forward price
A later month's price on the curve: the front price plus or minus the market's carry and tightness arithmetic, enforced by lesson 4's bound. It is not the market's prediction of where the spot price will be in that month, and reading it as one is the deep end's commonest drowning - almost every retail explanation makes exactly this mistake.
This lesson is part of the advanced modules.
Modules 6 to 8 are included with a paid account. The definitional summary above is the whole of this page until then.