Futures · Reading futures markets · lesson 7 of 9 · 6 min read · David Alexander
The continuous chart, revisited for every family
the splice, generalised
Every futures family's long-run chart is a stitched series - the commodities lesson was never about commodities, but about dated contracts, which is all of futures. Back-adjusted for changes, unadjusted for levels, explicit symbols for truth: the rules transfer to every family, with the seam sizes varying by each family's carry.
The commodities track's splice lesson turns out to have been a futures lesson wearing barrels. This module restates it as the general law, with the family-by-family calibration the board makes visible.
The law, restated
- Every continuous futures chart is a construction: months joined at rolls, with a seam at every join sized by the basis between the months.
- Back-adjusted series make changes true and levels fictional; unadjusted series the reverse - the two-construction rule, unchanged.
- The explicit month's own chart is always honest and always short - the board's symbols are the primary source when a question is about one contract's truth.
The family calibration
The seam size is the carry: financial futures with thin, financing-shaped curves produce small seams - a spliced equity-index chart misleads gently, which is why the error survives unnoticed; physical families in steep contango or backwardation produce the commodities track's violent seams; and seasonal families produce seasonal seams - the winter-summer joins in the calendared products are structure, not events. The reader's rule: know a family's typical basis before trusting its continuous chart's features at the joins, and assume every long-run futures chart in the wild is spliced by a method its publisher did not state.
What this module's reading rests on
The board is the antidote throughout: months read explicitly, curves read as shapes, rolls watched in the OI column - none of it needs the continuous alias. The alias earns its keep for long-horizon context and indicator arithmetic on back-adjusted data; the board earns everything else. Two tracks taught this the hard way; this module inherits it as settled law, and module 6 will enforce it in every backtest.
Check your understanding
Question 1 of 2
Why do spliced equity-index futures charts mislead 'gently'?