Commodities · Managing commodity risk · lesson 3 of 9 · 6 min read · David Alexander
The stop sized to the instrument's range, not a round number
average true range
A rolling average of how far an instrument actually travels per period, gaps included. It is the standard honest answer to 'how much does this thing move' - and therefore the standard input to a stop that is a decision about the instrument rather than about the trader's comfort.
A stop's job is to be hit only when the idea is wrong. A stop inside the instrument's ordinary daily wander is hit when nothing is wrong at all - it is a donation with paperwork.
Range is a property of the instrument
Crude routinely travels more in a session than some markets manage in a month, and gas makes crude look sedate. The seed of every bad commodity stop is imported intuition: a distance that felt generous on a currency pair is inside the hourly noise of a commodity. The instrument's measured range - ATR is the workhorse - is the only defensible starting point, scaled by a multiplier that reflects how much ordinary wander the idea is prepared to sit through.
Round numbers are decoration
A stop at $80 because $80 is round, or one dollar away because dollars are tidy, encodes no information about the market. Worse, module 2 taught you the continuous chart's old levels can be splice artefacts - a 'support' that nobody ever traded is a particularly hollow place to park a stop. Range-based placement asks the only question that matters: how far does this instrument move when nothing is happening, and how much further before something demonstrably is?
The range changes, and the stop must
- Commodity volatility is regime-shaped: a calm month and a supply-shock month are different instruments wearing the same symbol.
- A stop distance set in the calm regime and reused in the loud one is inside the noise again - the ATR moved and the stop did not.
- Wider stop, same budget, means fewer contracts. The size absorbs the regime; the risk number never does.
Work the numbers below: an ATR, a multiplier, a distance, and what that distance does to cash at risk. Then hand the distance to lesson 2's arithmetic - which is the whole system, joined.
Worked example
figures in USDA US dollar account of $100,000 risking 2%, placing a stop at twice an ATR of $2.10 on a dollar-quoted commodity.
- The instrument's ATR is $2.10 - its measured ordinary travel. A 2 multiplier places the stop $4.20 away: outside the noise, by a chosen margin.
- The account risks 2% of $100,000: $2,000. That budget and this distance now go to the sizing arithmetic - the stop was set by the instrument, the size gets set by the budget, and neither borrowed the other's job.
Check your understanding
Question 1 of 2
What makes a stop distance 'honest'?