Commodities · Building a commodity strategy · lesson 4 of 9 · 6 min read · David Alexander
Testing an event rule honestly
event rule
A strategy triggered by a scheduled release rather than by price alone: fade the spike, follow the surprise, trade the pre-release drift. Its sample is capped by the calendar - the setup cannot occur more often than the event does - and its true input is the surprise against consensus, which makes naive backtests of it wrong in a specific, fixable way.
This lesson is part of the advanced modules.
Modules 6 to 8 are included with a paid account. The definitional summary above is the whole of this page until then.