FX · Building an FX strategy · lesson 5 of 9 · 9 min read · David Alexander
Expectancy: what a strategy is worth per trade
expectancy
Expectancy is the average result per trade: win rate times average win, minus loss rate times average loss. It is the number that decides whether a rule is worth trading, and win rate alone tells you nothing without the payoff ratio beside it. A rule winning 35% of the time can be excellent or worthless depending entirely on the size of those wins relative to the losses.
This lesson is part of the advanced modules.
Modules 6 to 8 are included with a paid account. The definitional summary above is the whole of this page until then.