Crypto · Building a crypto strategy · lesson 1 of 9 · 7 min read · David Alexander
The overfitting capital of trading
the overfitting problem
Crypto is the worst backtest substrate on the platform: a short history containing three or four violent regime changes, so any rule has few genuinely independent periods to learn from and enormous scope to fit noise. This module leads with the problem rather than admitting it late, because in crypto overfitting is not one risk among many - it is the central risk, and every later lesson is built to fight it.
This lesson is part of the advanced modules.
Modules 6 to 8 are included with a paid account. The definitional summary above is the whole of this page until then.