Futures · Futures analysis foundations · lesson 7 of 9 · 6 min read · David Alexander
The calendar, merged: the underlying's plus the contract's
the merged calendar
Two date streams per family, one working document: the underlying's calendar - reports, earnings seasons, macro releases, inherited whole from its track - merged with the contract's own dates: expiries, first notice where physical, roll windows, and the index-roll schedules. The futures analyst's working calendar is the union, and every date on it was published in advance.
Every underlying track built a calendar discipline. The futures layer adds a second stream of dates - the contract's own - and the working document is the merge.
The two streams
- The underlying's: routed per lesson 2 - EIA Wednesdays for the crude future, the earnings season's density for index futures, the central-bank cycle for rates. What moves the underlying moves the future, on the underlying's clock.
- The contract's: expiry and last-trading dates per the spec, notice machinery where physical, the roll windows where OI migrates, and the published index-roll schedules that timetable the largest flows - dates that exist only because the contract does.
Where the streams interact
The merge matters most at its collisions: an underlying's report landing inside a roll window meets a market mid-migration - thinner front-month books than the calendar alone suggests; an expiry near a macro date compresses the roll decision; and the index-roll flows lean on the basis exactly as lesson 5's third needle described, on schedule. Reading the merged calendar means seeing these collisions a week out - which is the entire craft, since every input was public.
The working document
Per followed family, one dated list: the underlying's fixtures, the contract's dates, the collisions marked. Module 4's policies consume it - the event minutes, the overnight clauses, the roll conduct module 8 details; module 7's review reads outcomes against it. Five tracks of the same sentence, futures edition: two public streams, one merge, and being surprised by any date on it is a filing failure, not a market event.
Check your understanding
Question 1 of 2
What does the futures layer add to an underlying's calendar?