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Futures · Futures analysis foundations · lesson 1 of 9 · 6 min read · David Alexander

What futures analysis is: the underlying's, routed

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the routing thesis

Futures have no fundamentals of their own: an index future follows index logic, a crude future its supply story, a currency future its rate differentials. This module therefore teaches no new underlying analysis - it routes each family to its underlying's own track, and adds only what the futures layer itself contributes: positioning, the curve, and the basis. The anti-duplication choice, stated rather than hidden.

Every other analysis module on this platform taught its asset's drivers. This one opens by declining to - on purpose, and out loud - because the honest answer to 'what moves a future' is 'its underlying', and the underlying already has a track.

Why routing beats re-teaching

A futures course that re-teaches four asset classes teaches each badly - the standard failure of the genre, and the reason this module is structured as a router. The underlying tracks did the work at depth: the commodities balance sheets, the equity layers, the index drivers, the FX crowd-reading. A crude future's analyst needs the commodities track's module 5, full stop - and needs it undiluted, not summarised into uselessness here. The router's job is the mapping and the additions, and nothing else.

What is genuinely the futures layer's own

  • Positioning: the COT machinery covers financial futures too - lesson 6 extends the commodities lesson to every family with a report.
  • The curve: shape and change per family - the board's own read, with its economics concluded in module 8.
  • The basis: the tether's gauge - stress, carry inputs, and the health of every cross-reading, lesson 5's subject.

The module's shape

Lesson 2 is the routing table - family to track, with what to read. Lessons 3 through 5 are the additions: open interest as analysis, the curve as a read, the basis as a gauge. Lessons 6 and 7 generalise positioning and assemble the calendars. Lessons 8 and 9 finish with structure on the board and the assembled read. A reader who arrives here without an underlying track has the prerequisite stated plainly: go read one - this module's whole design assumes it, as module 1 said on day one.

Check your understanding

Question 1 of 2

Why does this module teach no new underlying analysis?